Nairobi (dpa) – The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned that current climate policies put the planet on course for a 2.8-degree-Celsius temperature rise by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial levels.
According to the latest Emissions Gap Report report published by the Nairobi-based UN agency on Tuesday, the passing of the crucial 1.5-degree threshold will occur “very likely within the next decade.”
The global community aims to keep warming below this limit to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.
This year’s UN report offers a slightly improved outlook: Last year, a 3.1-degree increase was projected based on current policies.
Furthermore, estimates suggest 2.3 to 2.5 degrees of warming by century’s end – assuming all national climate pledges are fully implemented. Last year’s forecast stood at 2.6 to 2.8 degrees.
However, the UNEP notes that methodological adjustments account for 0.1 degrees of this improvement, while the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement adds roughly 0.1 degrees to the total.
Progress, but nowhere near enough
“That is progress but nowhere near enough,” said UN Secretary General António Guterres. With the current plans, the signs are still pointing to “climate breakdown.”
To meet the 1.5-degree target, emissions would have to be reduced by 55% over the next 10 years compared to 2019 – and by 35% to at least stay below 2 degrees.
In fact, the full implementation of all national climate plans announced for the next decade would only result in a reduction of around 15% – and even this figure is subject to the effects of the US withdrawal.
The hottest year to date, 2024, has already broken the 1.5-degree mark; The target is only officially missed in the multi-year average.
However, the United Nations believes that exceeding the target is virtually unavoidable at this point.
The report states that “this overshoot must be limited through faster and bigger reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimize climate risks and damages and keep returning to 1.5 degrees by 2100 within the realms of possibility – although doing so will be extremely challenging.”
Guterres warned: “Any period of overshooting will inevitably bring dramatic consequences, with lives lost, communities uprooted, and development gains reversed.”
But there is also a ray of hope: Since the Paris Agreement was launched 10 years ago, the annual warming forecast – when it was assumed to be between 3 and 3.5 degrees – has decreased.
The technologies that could rapidly reduce emissions are available, the authors emphasize. “Wind and solar energy development is booming, lowering deployment costs. This means the international community can accelerate climate action, should they choose to do so,” the UN said.
The UN believes that the G20 group of large economies have a particular responsibility: These states, which are responsible for the majority of emissions, are not on track to achieve their 2030 targets. Instead, their emissions increased by 0.7% in 2024.
Due to global warming, many regions are experiencing more frequent and extreme weather, namely heatwaves and droughts, storms and flooding.
This can make entire regions uninhabitable, destroy harvests and thus exacerbate hunger crises. Sea levels are also rising, threatening coastal regions and small island states.
The greater the warming, the more extreme the consequences – and the greater the risk of crossing irreversible tipping points with unforeseeable consequences.
The report was issued just days before the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) opens in Belém, Brazil.
GNA