By Emelia B. Addae, GNA
Koforidua, July 27, GNA – The Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) has warned that strong gold earnings underpinning Ghana’s improved fiscal outlook mask deep-seated petroleum sector and governance risks, urging the Government to implement sustainable reforms to safeguard long-term economic stability.
The institute’s concerns and recommendations followed the presentation of the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review by Dr Cassiel Ato Forson, the Minister for Finance, which focused on the economy, job creation, and national development.
Speaking in an interview with the Ghana News Agency, Mr Patrick Kwabena Stephenson, the Country Manager of NRGI, said although strong gold exports and favourable international commodity prices had significantly improved Ghana’s fiscal position, structural weaknesses in the petroleum sector and governance gaps required urgent policy attention.
He noted that the 2026 Budget adopted a cautious outlook for the petroleum sector, projecting crude oil production of 37.95 million barrels, equivalent to about 103,959 barrels per day, compared with the projected 46.35 million barrels for 2025.
At a benchmark price of US$76.22 per barrel, petroleum revenue was initially estimated at approximately US$985 million.
He said the assumptions reflected the reality that Ghana’s major oil fields were maturing, and production was entering a period of structural decline because of reserve depletion, declining asset productivity and reduced sector performance rather than temporary market conditions.
Mr Stephenson said developments during the first half of 2026 had confirmed earlier concerns, recalling that the Africa Centre for Energy Policy (ACEP), reported a 15 per cent year-on-year decline in oil production and a 35.7 per cent drop in petroleum receipts in 2025 as a result of ageing oil fields, delayed investment and policy uncertainty.
He noted that although Brent crude prices remained above the budget benchmark for much of the first half of the year, increasing expected petroleum revenues from about US$985 million to nearly US$1.5 billion, the gains were driven largely by higher prices and not by improvements in the sector’s underlying fundamentals.
He said the temporary revenue windfall did not resolve the governance, investment and production challenges confronting Ghana’s upstream petroleum industry.
Mr Stephenson observed that the mining sector had significantly exceeded budget expectations, driven by historically high gold prices and rising production.
Unlike petroleum, where higher revenues were largely price-driven, mining benefited from both rising prices and increased output, particularly from the Artisanal and Small-scale Mining (ASM) subsector, he said.
However, the rapid expansion of ASM had heightened concerns over illegal mining, gold smuggling and regulatory oversight, prompting the GoldBod to introduce measures requiring licensed gold buyers to register purchases within five minutes of every transaction, he said.
He acknowledged that stronger gold export earnings had improved Ghana’s macroeconomic position by boosting foreign exchange inflows and increasing international reserves to cover more than five months of imports.
Mr Stephenson again noted that the success of the GoldBod’s aggregation model and the Gold Reserve Accumulation Programme, had strengthened the country’s external position at a time when access to international financing remained constrained.
Gold was increasingly assuming the stabilising role once expected of petroleum by supporting foreign reserves, strengthening fiscal resilience and reducing exposure to external shocks, he indicated.
He warned that despite the positive performance, Ghana’s growing dependence on gold posed significant long-term risks, explaining that export earnings were becoming increasingly concentrated in one commodity, exposing the country to future price volatility, like the experience of the petroleum sector.
Mr Stephenson pointed out that unlike petroleum, Ghana had no comprehensive mineral revenue management framework to ensure revenue stabilisation, long-term savings and strategic investment.
The NRGI called on the Government to expedite the review of the fiscal regime governing the extractive sector and publish a clear implementation timetable to restore investor confidence and improve Ghana’s competitiveness in attracting petroleum exploration and upstream investments.
The Institute also urged the Government to account for the US$434.55 million in Annual Budget Funding Amount (ABFA) resources, reportedly held in a suspense account under the Big Push infrastructure programme and provide full disclosure on the status of all ABFA-funded projects, in line with the Petroleum Revenue Management Act (PRMA).
It further expressed concern over the reported US$561.65 million in petroleum revenues retained by JOHL/Explorco outside the accountability framework, established under the PRMA and recommended that all petroleum revenues be brought under the Act’s reporting and oversight mechanisms.
On the proposed use of the Heritage Fund for domestic energy and transition infrastructure, the NRGI called on the Ministry of Finance, to publish the investment policy framework detailing the economic justification, project selection criteria, risk management arrangements and expected returns.
The Institute also appealed to the Government to publish the proposed National Petroleum Revitalisation Strategy, to enable public scrutiny of measures aimed at addressing declining production, attracting investment and strengthening sector governance.
With the statutory funding arrangement for GNPC’s Net Carried and Participating Interest (Net CAPI) expected to expire in 2026, the NRGI recommended that the Government clarified whether it intended to extend the existing arrangement or introduce an alternative financing model linked to measurable performance indicators, parliamentary oversight and commercial viability.
The Institute also requested an update on plans to construct a second gas processing train, particularly regarding financing arrangements and the availability of sufficient gas feedstock and further recommended quarterly public reporting on extractive revenues allocated to the Big Push infrastructure programme, including project allocations, disbursements, and value-for-money assessments.
Regarding power sector concerns, the institute questioned the Government’s commitment to develop a 1,200-megawatt thermal power plant through the Ghana Thermal Company, noting that together with already contracted Independent Power Producer projects, the country could add about 2,780 megawatts of new generation capacity without publicly available evidence of demand projections or fuel supply analysis.
It warned that the development could expose Ghana to excess generation capacity and costly take-or-pay obligations.
The institute therefore urged the Government to publish the financing arrangements, electricity demand forecasts, and fuel supply assessments supporting the project.
It also raised concerns over delays in implementing the Energy Sector Recovery Programme caused by commitment authorisation procedures and recommended a review to ensure fiscal discipline measures did not hinder programme implementation.
NRGI further called for an update on the ongoing process to introduce private sector participation in the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG), urging the Government to publish clear implementation timelines to accelerate reforms and reduce the sector’s growing fiscal burden.
The institute recommended the enactment of a Mineral Revenue Management Act to establish benchmark mineral revenues, a stabilisation fund, strategic investment windows and an independent oversight body like the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC).
It also called for greater clarity on the mandate of the Minerals Income Investment Fund (MIIF), particularly whether its primary role was to function as a sovereign wealth fund, fiscal stabilisation mechanism or strategic investment institution.
It also asked the Government to publish governance arrangements guiding GoldBod’s expanding responsibilities, including the management of trading surpluses, reserve accumulation and the distribution of gains between fiscal authorities and reserve management functions.
The institute recommended mandatory disclosure of beneficial ownership information, transaction terms, and the valuation of benchmarks for transfers involving critical mineral assets, including lithium projects.
On artisanal and small-scale mining, it called for simplified fiscal and licensing arrangements and full integration of ASM operators into GoldBod’s reporting and aggregation systems to increase the sector’s contribution to national revenue in line with its growing share of gold production.
Mr Stephenson emphasised that while strong commodity prices had improved Ghana’s fiscal outlook in 2026, sustainable economic growth would depend on strengthening governance, improving transparency and building resilient institutions capable of managing the country’s natural resource wealth for future generations.
GNA
Edited by D. I. Laary/ Christabel Addo
Reporter: Emelia B. Addae, GNA
[email protected]