Washington, July 28m (dpa/GNA) – Iran’s attack on a cargo ship and its subsequent attacks on US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, are attempts to make clear who controls the Strait of Hormuz and to force Gulf states to accept that, an analysis showed.
It could also be a signal to other Gulf states that Iran, could take military action against them if they supported the United States in undermining Iran’s claim to power in the strait, according to a situation analysis published by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Saturday.
Iran’s attack occurred on Thursday, and was followed by US strikes against Iranian targets, despite their being a ceasefire in place. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says, its attacks on neighbouring Gulf states are a response to the new US strikes. The US had therefore violated the framework agreement with Tehran to settle the war and the ceasefire in force. Under the agreement, there were arrangements with the Islamic Republic to control shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC said.
The interim agreement between the US and Iran “deliberately relied on flexible wording because this was probably the only way to get it concluded,” Nicole Grajewski of the Paris elite university Sciences Po told the New York Times.
However, this lack of clarity meant both sides, were now trying to create facts on the ground in their favour before details are set out in a final agreement, she added. “But flexibility only holds while both sides attach similar meanings to the same vague provisions.”
For Tehran, influence over the strait is at stake The strait, which is important for global trade, has proved a powerful lever for Iran in the war. And that is just what’s at stake now, according to Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group on X.
The US and other Gulf states were pushing ahead with efforts to usher ships through the Strait of Hormuz, without direct cooperation with Iran. Tehran is currently testing how far it can go in the present situation to assert its influence, Brew wrote. ” If some minimal military action is enough to close the Omani route and move shipping into routes Iran can control, why not give it a shot?” he wrote.
The risks were low as long as Iran could trust that the US would not return to a more aggressive approach, Brew added.
GNA