By Jibril Abdul Mumuni
Accra, Dec. 16, GNA – International ratings agency Fitch Solutions has projected a robust economic outlook for Ghana in 2026, driven by resilient consumer spending and increased investment activity.
The agency forecasted that real GDP growth would accelerate, rising from 5.8 per cent in 2025 to 5.9 per cent in 2026, supported by moderating inflation and a rebound in investment.
This projection comes despite data from the Ghana Statistical Service showing a slowdown in growth to 5.5 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, compared with 6.5 per cent in the second quarter.
The report identified resilient household demand as the main driver of growth.
“This will be bolstered by a significant easing of inflationary pressures. Fitch projects average annual inflation to decline to 9.7 per cent in 2026, down from 14.6 per cent in 2025,” the agency said.
It attributed the disinflation to a reduction in the effective VAT rate, softer global energy prices, and modest depreciation pressures on the Ghana Cedi.
“While inflation will run slightly hotter in the second half of 2026 amid some demand-side pressures, it will remain modest by recent standards, limiting strain on household finances,” the report stated.
The agency said the government’s commitment in the 2026 budget to raise public-sector wages by 9.0 per cent was expected to strengthen household purchasing power.
Private consumption growth was forecast to remain strong at 6.5 per cent in 2026, contributing 5.3 percentage points to overall GDP growth.
On investment, Fitch highlighted several positive factors. It said the Bank of Ghana’s monetary policy easing cycle, which had seen significant rate cuts since mid-2025, was expected to stimulate private-sector borrowing.
The agency noted that the anticipated implementation of the Public-Private Partnership Act and the Corporate Insolvency and Restructuring Act would strengthen the regulatory environment and boost investor confidence.
It added that recapitalisation of institutions such as the National Investment Bank and the Agricultural Development Bank would enhance access to finance for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, adding momentum to private-sector investment.
On external stability, Fitch said elevated global gold prices and healthy international reserves would help limit pressure on the exchange rate, with the Cedi expected to depreciate below its long-term average.
GNA
Edited by Kenneth Sackey