By Jibril Abdul Mumuni
Accra, Aug. 5, GNA – Ghana’s increasing reliance on gold exports poses risks to the country’s economic outlook despite recent macroeconomic gains, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned.
High gold prices have strengthened the country’s external position, supported economic growth and helped rebuild international reserves, but the economy remains vulnerable to adverse movements in global gold prices, the Fund’s latest Article IV Consultation and Programme review report on Ghana said.
The report noted that gold exports accounted for more than 65 per cent of Ghana’s total goods exports in 2025 and are projected to increase further in 2026.
Strong gold export earnings contributed to a current account surplus and boosted the Bank of Ghana’s international reserves to their highest levels in recent years, it said.
However, a significant decline in global gold prices could reverse those gains by reducing export earnings, weakening foreign exchange inflows and increasing pressure on public finances, the report said.
Stress tests conducted as part of Ghana’s Debt Sustainability Analysis identified commodity price shocks, particularly those affecting gold, as among the country’s most significant risks to debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability, it said.
While recent reserve accumulation has strengthened Ghana’s buffers against external shocks, the report urged the country to avoid excessive reliance on favourable commodity prices in managing the economy.
The report also highlighted the increasing role of domestic gold purchases in building international reserves and stressed the need for transparency and prudent management of the associated costs and risks.
It welcomed reforms in the gold sector, including the transfer of the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme from the Bank of Ghana to GoldBod, saying the move was expected to improve accountability and reduce financial risks to the central bank.
The report identified illegal mining, gold smuggling and environmental degradation as challenges requiring stronger oversight and responsible sourcing measures to sustain long-term benefits from the sector.
It encouraged Ghana to continue implementing policies to diversify the economy, strengthen domestic revenue mobilisation and maintain fiscal discipline, saying a broader economic base would reduce exposure to fluctuations in international commodity prices and support more resilient growth.
Despite the identified risks, the report said Ghana’s economy performed strongly in 2025, supported by improved macroeconomic stability, lower inflation, stronger growth and progress in debt restructuring.
Sustaining those gains would require prudent economic management and continued reforms to reduce vulnerabilities associated with dependence on a narrow range of export commodities, the report said.
GNA
Edited by Kenneth Sackey
Reporter: Jibril Abdul Mumuni