Washington, Apr. 22, (dpa/GNA) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, predicting the wave of tariffs and uncertainty unleashed by US President Donald Trump will lead to a worldwide economic slowdown.
The IMF revised down its projection of 3.3% forecast in January. Global growth for 2026 was projected to drop to 3%, also down from 3.3% and below the 2000-19 historical average of 3.7%.
In 2024, global economic growth was estimated at 3.3%.
IMF economic counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the world economy was “being severely tested” following the new tariffs announced by Trump.
The IMF noted that its April forecast was “put together under exceptional circumstances,” citing Trump’s announcement on April 2 that the US was imposing blanket tariffs of 10% on all imports to the US, plus additional levies for a host of trading partners.
While many of the planned tariffs have been suspended for 90 days to allow for trade negotiations, the announcement caused the IMF experts “to jettison” their projections, Gourinchas said.
Noting that global supply chains and financial flows are intertwined across borders, the IMF said it believes “the sharp increase on April 2 in both tariffs and uncertainty will lead to a significant slowdown in global growth in the near term.”
“While many of the scheduled tariff increases are on hold for now, the combination of measures and countermeasures has hiked US and global tariff rates to centennial highs.”
The global economy proved surprisingly resilient during the shocks of the last four years – including a period of global high inflation linked to energy prices and the war in Ukraine – and still “bears significant scars,” the IMF said.
Now, inflation could rise again amid the trade tensions, while the uncertainty surrounding them was weighing on growth, it said.
In light of the volatile situation, the IMF also published two further forecasts besides its main economic outlook, called a “reference forecast.”
The reference forecast takes into account all information available as of April 4, including Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2.
A second forecast that only takes into account tariffs announced by March 12 – including Trump’s initial punitive measures targeting China, Canada and Mexico as well as steel and aluminium imports – predicts global growth will reach 3.2% this year and in 2026.
A model-based forecast, which also takes into account tariff announcements made after April 4 such as the pause in reciprocal tariffs, sees global economic growth at around 2.8% this year and around 2.9% in 2026.
Looking at individual countries, the IMF sharply downgraded its growth forecast for the United States, with economic growth expected to slow to 1.8% in 2025, compared to 2.7% predicted in January.
In 2026, the experts expect US economic growth to drop to 1.7%, down by 0.4 percentage points compared with the previous forecast.
The IMF also revised its 2025 economic growth forecast for the eurozone to 0.8%, down by 0.2 percentage points compared to the January projection, due to the tariff uncertainty.
For 2026, the experts expect growth compared to 2025 of 1.2%, driven by rising consumption fuelled by real wage growth, although this does represent a 0.2-point downward revision from the 1.4% they forecast in January.
GNA
PDC