Washington, Jan 4 (CNN/GNA) — Speaker Mike Johnson faces a major challenge in the new Congress: the narrowest House majority in nearly 100 years.
In a dramatic turn of events, Johnson managed to retain the gavel in a single vote on Friday, the first day of the 119th Congress, after flipping key GOP detractors at the last minute.
Republicans now control the House and the Senate and will soon control the White House. But the drama that played out on the House floor during the speaker election is a preview of how unruly a narrow majority can be. And thin margins could imperil President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda.
Republicans won 220 House seats in the November elections, while Democrats won 215, the most narrowly divided House majority since the outset of the Great Depression, almost a century ago.
And the margin is set to quickly shrink even further.
When the House convened Friday, the partisan breakdown stood at 219 to 215 since former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida opted not to return to Congress.
From there, the majority is on track to soon drop to 217 to 215 with two GOP lawmakers expected to join the Trump administration.
At that point, House Republicans would not be able to afford a single defection to pass legislation along party lines until the vacancies are filled.
With Republicans in control of Washington, there will be intense pressure on GOP leaders to swiftly enact Trump’s agenda.
But the extraordinarily tight margin gives any rank-and-file lawmaker the ability to exert outsized influence by making demands on the speaker.
Johnson has already had to contend with that – frequently in the form of pressure from his right flank, a dynamic that now set to intensify.
Passing a bill in the House requires a majority of all members present and voting. The magic number is 218 if every member shows up to vote and all 435 seats are filled, but that can change if there are vacancies or absences. A tie vote in the House is a fail.
If Republicans aren’t in lockstep, then House GOP leaders will need Democrats to pass legislation.
How the House majority ranks in history
The last time a minority in the House held 215 or more seats was after the 1930 elections, when Republicans won 218 seats, Democrats won 216 and the Farmer-Labor Party won one.
The 72nd Congress — which took place in the early years of the Great Depression era — officially started in March 1931, but did not actually convene to conduct legislative business until months later, in December 1931.
At the official start of that term, in March, the House margin had narrowed even further — to 217 seats for Republicans to 216 for Democrats with one seat for the Farmer-Labor party and one vacancy as a result of the death of one Republican.
In an unusual turn of events, however, the partisan breakdown changed significantly by the time Congress convened when a series of additional deaths and ensuing special elections flipped control of the chamber to Democrats, though the margin remained narrow.
According to House historical records, the 65th Congress had the closest party split in American history, but in that case, the partisan division was so narrow that neither party secured an outright majority in the House based on election results, which left Republicans with 215 seats and Democrats with 214. As a result, a handful of third-party lawmakers played a decisive role when the House convened to elect a speaker.
GNA/CNN