Geneva, March 20, (dpa/GNA) – The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is set to present its landmark “synthesis report” about the existential dangers posed by global warming on Monday.
The report summarizes the results of six previous assessments, that have been published in the last eight years, and encapsulates the state of scientific knowledge on human-caused climate change.
This synthesis report, is intended to show more clearly than ever before, what needs to be done to limit climate change and mitigate its worst consequences.
For the last week, 650 government representatives and scientists have been negotiating the precise wording of the report in Interlaken, Switzerland.
The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, led by the United Nations with representatives from 195 member countries. The reports it approves are the basis for further climate negotiations at the political level. The last synthesis report was published in 2018.
The IPCC’s report is intended to guide governments to make the necessary policy decisions, needed to mitigate and avert the effects of Earth’s warming climate.
They have already received summaries for policy makers of all six sub-reports since 2018.
Many scientists however, feel the message is still not clear enough. “The summaries are sometimes rather vaguely worded,” co-author of the report and Oliver Geden from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin told dpa.
“This is because unanimity is needed, each country can veto,” Geden added.
While the formulations must not contradict scientific findings, he said, “they do not always correspond 100% to the intention of the actual report.”
The report is considered a crucial benchmark for climate policy worldwide. “It will become very clear that the prevention of climate change alone, is no longer enough. That ship has sailed,” one of the authors of the report, climate researcher Matthias Garschagen of Ludwig Maximilian University in Munich, told dpa.
“We have clear impacts of climate change today, and we need adaptations to them,” said Garschagen.
He added that the synthesis report also clearly shows how these climate goals are to be achieved, and points to the “nonsense” of certain policy paths.
The process of writing the report is cumbersome, as government representatives have differing stances on climate policy. Countries like Saudi Arabia and India for example, are often more focused on their own industrial development.
Nevertheless, the process is worthwhile, says Geden. Because once the report is adopted, there is no going back: “What it says is the basis for climate negotiations and is usually no longer questioned by governments.”
This synthesis report is the conclusion of the 6th Assessment Cycle on the state of climate change research. The new cycle begins in the summer. The next major reports are expected to be published in five to seven years.
The IPCC’s most recent three reports, published between summer 2021 and spring 2022, were alarming, with climate change is proceeding faster and with more consequences than previously assumed.
It is highly unlikely that the world will manage to stay under its original target of limiting warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The synthesis report will likely be even clearer on this. “The reports of Working Groups 1 and 3 have already shown that we will probably be above the 1.5 degrees for decades.”
Garschagen is optimistic that something is finally happening in politics. “Through recent crises such as the pandemic, violent conflicts, the war against Ukraine and the energy crises, politicians have understood: You have to think about crises in the big picture because they can reinforce each other.”
GNA