Bonn, June 21, (dpa/GNA) – Aircraft have experienced increasing amounts of unexpected turbulance over the past four decades, a new study by scientists at the University of Reading in Britain has found.
The study found that the increase in turbulence was particularly strong over the United States and the North Atlantic, but other regions are also affected, such as routes over Europe.
The study looked at instances of clear-air turbulence, which does not occur in a foreseeable manner in mountain ranges but instead catches a plane by surprise while in free flight.
Instances of clear-air turbulence increased from 1979 to 2020, according to the study, which was published in early June. The total duration of severe turbulence over the North Atlantic, for example, increased by 55%.
The scientists predict a further increase as climate change progresses.
The authors had already established a connection between turbulence and climate change in earlier studies.
Paul D. Williams, one of the authors of the study, explained that climate change warms the area south of the jet stream more than the area north of it for air at the normal cruising altitude for aircraft.
The larger temperature difference leads to sharper changes in wind direction and thus more turbulence, Williams said.
“Every additional amount of CO2 in the atmosphere means a stronger temperature difference across the jet stream, which means stronger wind shear, which means more” clear-air turbulence, said Williams.
“When we run supercomputer simulations of a future with twice as much CO2 in the atmosphere than pre-industrial levels, we see roughly twice (or even three times) as much severe” clear-air turbulence.
GNA